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Math Preparation and Post- Secondary Success
disclaimer
This data story was originally published in 2014. This story is scheduled for update in 2021. Unfortunately, the visuals are not interactive until the update. Thank you for your patience.
introduction
Are Rhode Island students ready for success after high school? Does secondary math proficiency affect Rhode Island students' postsecondary success?
This data story focuses on the importance of strong math preparation. It examines the level of math proficiency Rhode Island students obtain and how this relates to their postsecondary success. Issues of enrollment, remediation, and persistence are explored. To view a presentation of the highlights of this story, click here.
In this story we follow the educational pathways of a cohort of Rhode Island 11th graders into a 3rd semester of college.
The findings: Low math proficiency in high school presents a significant stumbling block to college enrollment, persistence, and success.
Why math?
Secondary math skills are far more complex than the straightforward computational skills covered in the middle and elementary grades. The abstract thinking required by algebra and geometry require sophisticated problem solving skills that are prevalent in the new “knowledge” economy. These same skills are a key part of college readiness.
Student achievement is significantly higher in reading and literacy than in math, both nationally and in RI. Words are everywhere -- street signs, labels, the internet. But young people encounter higher-level mathematics almost exclusively in school. Schools struggle to help students achieve math proficiency.
Why are math skills so important to the quality of RI's workforce?
Rhode Island and the nation are experiencing a "skills gap" whereby high unemployment co-exists with high job-vacancy rates. Formerly, manufacturing jobs did not require nearly the math they require now. This chart, from The New York Times, indicates just how much this skills gap in the workforce has grown over time.
Also, according to Forbes Magazine, 6 out of the 10 most in-demand jobs require skills that include "knowledge of arithmetic, algebra, geometry, calculus, statistics and their application."
The statewide tests (NECAP) serve as RI's common measure of math proficiency
This story begins with Rhode Island's public-school 8th graders in school year 2005-06 and continues to follow those students who then took the 11th-grade NECAP. The cohort includes the 9,301 students with records from both the 8th and 11th-grade statewide tests. Students who entered the RI public school system at any time after 2005-06 are not included.
We track this group's public-school journey along a math path into college, checking the persistence and success of these students through their 3rd semester of higher education.
This cohort of students will be examined through many lenses. These range from a smaller subset only at CCRI, to one that includes those students in all three of the state's public higher education institutions, or those in any postsecondary institution across the country. Data notes at the bottom of each page will clarify the student set used on each corresponding chart.
HOW MANY OF THESE 11TH GRADERS ENROLLED AND PERSISTED IN HIGHER EDUCATION?
Less than 43% of this 11th-grade cohort enrolled in a second year, or 3rd semester, of higher education.
The student cohort for this data story is the 9,301 students -- in the blue box to the left. Roughly 3,000 8th-grade students disappear from our study because they did not stay in Rhode Island public schools through the administration of the 11th-grade NECAP. (Many transferred to private school or moved out of state.)
As we follow those students who enter higher education we consider all students, regardless of if they enrolled full-time or part-time.
Understanding the NECAP Proficiency Levels
All NECAP results are expressed as four proficiency levels:
Level 1: Substantially-below proficient
Level 2: Partially proficient
Level 3: Proficient
Level 4: Proficient with distinction
Beginning with the graduating class of 2014, RI high-school students must score at least "partially proficient" or show improvement on the NECAP exam, or pass another approved assessment in both reading and math in order to be eligible for graduation.
Too many proficient 8th graders no longer achieve proficiency by 11th grade
More than 40% of the student cohort did not acquire the more-complex skills necessary to achieve partial proficiency or higher on the 11th-grade NECAP in math.
To see how students' performance levels change between 8th and 11th grade, click to the above photo to the right.
NOTE: The cohort includes the 9,301 students with records from both the 8th and 11th-grade statewide tests. Students who entered the RI public school system at any time after 2005-06 are not included. This does not include 11th grade NECAP data for students who left the system after 8th grade.
Higher math proficiency is related to higher college enrollment
Nearly 81% of those who scored at Levels 3 and 4 on the 11th-grade NECAP enrolled in higher education. Fewer than 42% of the Level 1 students did so.
NOTE: This chart includes all students regardless of where they enrolled. The students represented by the gray bar had no known college enrollments within 18 months of leaving high school.
Where do they go? Documenting an educational "brain drain"
Of the students who enrolled in postsecondary education, more than one third (37%) of the Level 3 students and nearly two-thirds (63%) of the Level 4 students, attended out-of-state institutions.
- 85% of Level 1 and 77% of Level 2 students enrolled in RI institutions.
- Rhode Island's highest math achievers in our public schools are going elsewhere for higher education, potentially breaking existing ties with their home state.
NOTES:
- This chart includes all students in the 11th grade cohort who enrolled in higher education.
- Because there are so few students in the Level 4 category (only 145), from this point forward Level 3 and 4 students will be collapsed into one bar. Whenever the cell includes fewer than 10 records, the data are suppressed, as is the case with the small number of our cohort's Level 4 students who enrolled at RIC and CCRI.
Low NECAP scores forecast student need for remedial math at CCRI
Roughly 80% of students who scored a Level 1 on the math NECAP needed substantial remediation in math, as measured by Accuplacer at CCRI.
Accuplacer is the entrance assessment CCRI administers to students to determine readiness to take college-level math courses. While NECAP and Accuplacer are very dissimilar tests, these results indicate that the math NECAP test correlates to achievement on the Accuplacer entrance test.
NOTE: This chart includes only students who took Accuplacer at CCRI.
Low achieving students tend to enroll in remedial courses
Of all students enrolled in a public, in-state institution, 54% of the Level 1 students took a remedial math course, in contrast to only 4% of the proficient students.
Remedial (or 'developmental') courses are not credit bearing so do not count toward Associate or Bachelor degrees. Still students must pay course tuition which can make remedial courses feel like "getting nowhere."
NOTE: This chart includes only students from our cohort who enrolled in one of the three RI public higher education institutions.
Math-proficient students earn higher GPAs in RI's public colleges
Grade-point averages (GPA) earned at the end of the second semester of college continue to reflect the importance of high-school math preparation.
In the graph above, the students with the highest GPAs are represented by the green at the top of the bars. These averages of all grades received by a student are then calibrated down to the pink group at the bottom.
GPA is tied to financial aid, scholarships, and academic probation. Almost a quarter of the Level 1 students (24%) had GPAs at or below 2.0.
NOTE: This chart includes only students enrolled in the three RI public higher education institutions who persisted to a second semester. A student may have no GPA if they did not complete any credit-bearing courses.
Math proficiency has an impact on student persistence in college
Only 60% of the remaining Level 1 students persisted to a third semester in college, while 83% of the math-proficient students did so.
By third semester, the start of the second year of college, high-school math proficiency appears to forecast success ever more decisively.
On every indicator, the data confirm that strong math skills predict students' academic success well into college.
NOTE: This chart includes all students who persist in both public and private as well as in- and out-of-state higher education institutes. For the purposes of this report, only students who enrolled in consecutive terms are considered to have persisted.
Yes, high-school math proficiency strongly correlates with academic success in college
Only 24% of the Level 1 students enrolled in and persisted to a third semester of college.
We revisit and re-frame the original student flow chart found on page 5, paring the complexity down to simple bars that starkly show persistence in either in-state or out-of-state colleges by NECAP proficiency levels.
Fewer than one-quarter (944) of our cohort's Level 1 11th-graders enrolled in higher education and persisted to a 3rd semester of college. The same is true for 47% (1,291) of Level 2 students and 66% (1,734) of Level 3 and 4 students.
Conclusions
Actions Under Way: K-12
- Implementing the Common Core State Standards and aligned assessments across all grade levels.
- Increasing the rigor of mathematics instruction in high school.
- Providing additional support to students whose achievement falls below proficiency.
- Continuing to implement the Rhode Island Diploma System to ensure our students are better prepared for success beyond high school.
Actions Under Way: Postsecondary
- Funding personalized academic student support services at each of Rhode Island’s public postsecondary institutions.
- Partnering faculty members with local school districts to provide intensive professional development in math instruction.
- Conducting longitudinal research to better understand PK-20 student outcomes.
Actions Still Needed
- Ensure that districts are working to identify and support middle-school students with low achievement levels in mathematics and that high-school students enroll in course sequences that provide instruction aligned with the Common Core State Standards.
- Ensure that districts and higher-education institutions present more opportunities for contextualized mathematics learning with hands-on experiences.
- Ensure that intensive math remediation is available and that students are placed in co-enrolled postsecondary, credit-bearing courses with remedial support.
- Ensure more significant state merit scholarships and internships are offered to motivate our highest-achieving math students to stay in Rhode Island.
published 2014
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